I learned recently that something like 70–80% of all financial transactions are still processed by a COBOL system. That blew my mind. Every time I swipe my credit card for an Americano, a programming language older than my parents works behind the scenes.
I assumed that because COBOL was so ancient, we (as a species) had likely moved on to something more modern like Java or Python or Go. But I was precisely wrong. COBOL was still around because, not in spite of, its age.
A counterintuitive idea called the Lindy Effect is at play here, which says the longer something's been around, the longer it's likely to stick around. Let's explore this idea further.
The Lindy Effect: Old Stuff Just Keeps Going
The concept originates from New York's comedy scene from the '60s. The comedians argued about which Broadway show would outlast the others. Their eventual conclusion was that the longer something's been around, the longer it's likely to keep going. A show that was on for two weeks was likely to last two more weeks. One that's been on for two years was likely to go on for around two more years.
Nassim Taleb, who popularized the idea in Antifragile, calls it being “battle-tested.” Old things don’t just survive. They thrive because they’ve faced crises, skeptics, and “replacements” and come out on top.
COBOL has been chugging along for 65 years. By Lindy logic, it's got decades left. Let's take a look at a few more examples—and at COBOL itself—from Lindy's lens.
Books: Still Alive Despite TikTok
"No one reads books." This has become a fashionable thing to say. With everyone glued to X or streaming apps, who has the time, or the attention span, to read? But this hot take, unfortunately, is not grounded in fact.
Print book sales have been steady for the last decade at about 700 million units a year in the U.S., and audiobooks were up 22% in 2024. So, not only are books not dying, but if you count the e-book and audiobook sales, they are actually growing.
Books have been around for thousands of years and are likely to be around for hundreds, if not thousands, more.
Classic Books: A Special Case of Books
If you zoom in on the classics—the books that have stood the test of time—the effect is even clearer. The Bible sells around 15–20 million copies a year in the U.S., leaving most bestsellers in the dust. Homer's Iliad, nearly 3,000 years old, is still taught, turned into movies, and memed on X with Trojan War gifs. Dostoevsky's Crime and Punishment and Brothers Karamazov get new translations and are often touted as the best of literature.
Mechanical Keyboards
Mechanical keyboards, which originate from the typewriter in the 1860s, were supposed to die when touchscreens took over. In 2025, the mechanical keyboard market is worth $2 billion. The growth is fueled by gamers and coders--search for "thocky" on X and you'll see what I mean. Mechanical keyboards are tactile, reliable, and simple. They're likely not going away anytime soon.
COBOL: The Dinosaur That Runs Everything
COBOL, or Common Business-Oriented Language, was created in 1959 by Grace Hopper and team to make business computing reliable and readable, even for non-technical folks like accountants. Back then, Elvis was at his prime and the internet was pure science fiction. Yet, 65 years later, COBOL isn't just alive—it's running the world's most critical systems. I was skeptical initially: "No way this old code's still relevant." But I did some research and changed my mind.
Powering the World's Money
COBOL handles 70–80% of global financial transactions and processes $3 trillion of commerce daily, according to IBM. This includes your ATM withdrawal, mortgage payment, and credit swipes. It's not just banks, though:
- Airlines: Systems like Sabre, built in the '60s, use COBOL to book your flights.
- Government: The IRS’s tax systems and Social Security’s payroll rely on COBOL.
- Retail and Logistics: Walmart and FedEx use COBOL for inventory and shipping.
According to Reuters, there are 220 billion lines of COBOL in use today. COBOL is more than just a niche relic; it's the spine of our economy.
The Trillion-Dollar Trap
COBOL's commonly touted as something expensive and painful to maintain. This got a fair bit of coverage recently with DOGE's modernization drama on X. So why not ditch COBOL for something more modern? It is nightmarishly difficult—and not to mention, obscenely expensive. Rewriting millions of lines of code, testing new systems, and avoiding disasters (like your bank account vanishing) is brutal. Reportedly, in the 2000s, BNY Mellon Bank sank $300 million into a Java rewrite, only to scrap it and stick with COBOL. Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) successfully completed its modernization effort in 2012, but it took more than five years and almost $750 million. A global modernization effort would cost trillions—more than the GDP of many nations. The lesson seems to be: if it ain't broke, don't fix it.
Not All COBOL is a Mess
COBOL's got a bad rap as unmaintainable, spaghetti code. But every language has its disasters. I've seen my fair share of garbage Java, JavaScript, C, C++, Python, and more. Well-written COBOL is modular, efficient, and secure. Its verbosity, like ADD A TO B GIVING C, is a feature, not a bug, because non-coders can also read it. This prosaic syntax also makes it easier for LLMs and AI to understand.
COBOL's Not Stuck in the Past
IBM's z16 mainframe, launched in 2022, runs COBOL faster than ever, handling 25 billion encrypted transactions a day. Startups like Heirloom Computing offer “COBOL-as-a-service,” linking old systems to cloud apps with microservices. Many universities still teach COBOL, and bootcamps are training new coders for high-paying gigs.
When Y2K happened, everyone thought COBOL would crash the world, but it didn't. Most systems were patched with minimal fuss, proving COBOL's toughness and robustness.
Why COBOL is Still Here: The Lindy Effect in Action
COBOL is a great example of the Lindy Effect. Its simplicity, reliability, and verbosity make it antifragile. Python is great for AI, and JavaScript rules the web. But COBOL is the undisputed champ when it comes to banking and financial services.
The Lindy Effect shows why COBOL, books, and mechanical keyboards keep going. Time tests resilience. COBOL is not a relic. It quietly powers the hidden backends of the world.
The next time you're at the ATM, maybe think about COBOL for a second. Who knows—maybe one day, when we’re all on Mars, COBOL will still be there, processing our interplanetary transactions.
References
- Lindy Effect, "Wikipedia," 2025.
- Association of American Publishers, “U.S. Book Sales Report,” 2024.
- Bible Sales Data, U.S. Market Analysis, 2024.
- Market Research Future, "Global Mechanical Keyboard Market Overview," 2025.
- RIAA, “Vinyl Sales Report,” 2024.
- IBM, “The Future of COBOL,” 2025.
- Reuters, “COBOL blues,” 2017.
- Study on COBOL Replacement Costs, 2019.
- IBM, “z16 Technical Overview,” 2022.